The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 5/2025. Economics and Management.

Vadim V. Potapenko

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Laboratory for Research on the Basic Pension Income, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-3825-831X

POPULATION AGING AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN ON THE RUSSIAN PENSION SYSTEM 

27-45

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The article describes a scenario forecast of changes of the demographic burden on the pension system and the economy of Russia in general due to ongoing aging of the population. An approach to forecasting a number of employed based on demographic indicators and labor market characteristics is proposed. The changes in gender and age levels of labor force participation rates are discussed, including their growth among the pre-retirement and retirement age groups as a result of an increase in the retirement age. It is shown that in the long term, the demographic burden on the Russian economy will rise, but will not exceed the previously observed level. However, it is demonstrated that the main challenge associated with the growth of such a burden is its redistribution between age groups, from children and youth to the old population. The possible answer to this challenge is the modification of the state pension system of Russia, in particular, the incorporation of a basic pension income into it.

Keywords: pension system, population aging, retirement age increase, dependency ratio, demographic projections, labor force participation rates, basic pension income.

JEL: H55, J11, J21

EDN: ISBAMN

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_5_27_45

The reported study was funded by Russian Science Foundation grant 25-18-00228, https://rscf.ru/en/project/25-18-00228/, at the Institute of Economics of the RAS.

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Manuscript submission date: 17.07.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 13.10.2025

For citation:

Potapenko V.V. Population aging and the demographic burden on the Russian pension system // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 5. Pp. 27-45. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_5_27_45 EDN: ISBAMN

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