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Date of placement: 16.05.2025

  

95TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

 

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS BY DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES M.YU. GOLOVNIN

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N.Yu. Akhapkin

DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC STRATEGIES: EXPERIENCE AND APPROACHES OF THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

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Over the years of its existence, the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences has developed a tradition of a systematic, well-founded approach to the analysis of economic processes and their dynamics, development factors and assessment of prospects. At the same time, among the wide range of problems that the Institute has been developing, a special place has always been given to research related to the choice of both a strategic path for the development of the country as a whole and priorities and methods of socio-economic policy at different stages of Russia’s development. In the course of such research, many circumstances were taken into account – global trends in the world economy, technological transformations, the direction of institutional changes, and, of course, the unique characteristics of the Russian economic system. The Institute has accumulated extensive experience in developing conceptual issues of implementing strategically important transformations. Familiarization with it and use in the process of strategic management, as it seems, can significantly help in solving urgent problems of the current stage of the country’s economic development.

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G.J. Gloveli

THE FIRST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS AND RUSSIAN SCHOOLS OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT

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The article is devoted to the evaluation of the concept of a special Russian school of economic thought, put forward at the end of the 20th century by L.I. Abalkin and Yu.Ya. Olsevich, prominent scientists of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The position is substantiated that, although in this concept the peculiarities of the movement of the Russian school of economic thought were generally rightly noted, it is more correct to speak not about a single school, but about various schools of Russian economic thought that contributed to the understanding of the national economic identity. A brief description of these schools is given in the context of the concept of industrial revolutions put forward by A.I. Anchishkin, the founder of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

 

A.A. Maltsev, S.V. Chichilimov

REGIONAL AND INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING OF INVESTMENT FLOWS AS A FACTOR OF STRENGTHENING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE URAL’S ECONOMY

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The article considers the state of the economy and investment complex of the Urals. It reveals the persistence of the underinvestment in the macroregion economy, which causes the level of depreciation of fixed assets exceeding the average Russian level. The author’s methodology for analyzing the investment activity of the Ural business has been developed, based on a “field” study of changes in the dynamics of the implementation of investment projects in industry and agriculture. A comparative analysis of regional and sectoral restructuring of investment flows has made it possible to identify the main features of the restoration and increase of investment activity in the Urals. The hypothesis about the beginning of an investment cycle based on the accumulation of industrial capital has received well-grounded confirmation.

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O.I. Timofeeva

ON THE CONCEPT OF BUDGET OPENNESS (TRANSPARENCY)

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Budget openness (transparency) is a new phenomenon in economic science. Currently, standards of budget openness (transparency) have been developed, its measurement is carried out, its impact on other socio-economic indicators or phenomena is determined. At the same time, the concept of “budget openness (transparency)” has not been theoretically developed well enough. The purpose of the article is to develop the theoretical basis of budget openness (transparency) based on clarification of its essential characteristics. For this, the terms that are used to denote budget openness (transparency) are considered, an overview of the definitions of these terms available in the literature is given. A conceptual representation of the idea of “budget openness (transparency)” was formed, and its definition was given. It is concretized and expanded. The author’s vision of the purpose of open budget data is also presented.

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FINANCE

 

A.V. Polbin, M.A. Kropocheva 

THE IMPACT OF DOWNWARD NOMINAL WAGE RIGIDITY ON FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN RUSSIA

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This paper evaluates the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) on fiscal and monetary policy for Russian economy. We obtain a piecewise linear approximation of the solution for DSGE model, which makes it possible to take into account the constraint on wage dynamics. The results indicate greater efficiency of fiscal policy during a recession compared to an economic expansion. In addition, the dependence of the multipliers value on the nature of the shock affecting the economy is noted. The efficiency of monetary policy, on the contrary, is lower in the presence of DNWR. The results of the study allow us to conclude that DNWR plays a significant role as one of the factors weakening the impact of monetary policy and causing the asymmetry of government spending multipliers. The results of the study can be useful in planning fiscal and monetary policy, as well as in constructing DSGE models that capture more complex dynamics of economic indicators.

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K.D. Plachinda

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATES ON THE MOSCOW EXCHANGE INDUSTRY INDICES

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The study evaluates the impact of changes in the overnight RUONIA rate on the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange industry total return indices. The analysis included index quotations, calculation of implied in interest rate swaps RUONIA rates for T+1, and the development of predictive models using machine learning, followed by their backtesting. The results show that the models correctly predict the direction of index changes in more than 50% of cases. A connection between changes in the implied RUONIA rate and index dynamics was identified. This confirms that the RUONIA rate and its forecast can be used to improve the prediction of index price movements, optimizing portfolio theory and investor strategies.

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WORLD ECONOMY

 

V.L. Abramov, A.D. Vasilchenko 

REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS AS A DRIVER OF TRADE INTEGRATION IN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION

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The article dissects main characteristics of the EAEU regional value chains. The hypothesis of a positive correlation between member states’ participation in regional value chains and their intraregional industrial exports has been tested. The results obtained suggest a preferential shift to industrial goods in the intraregional trade since the launch of the integration; the most punctuated this shift is in chemical industry products and machinery. The study also identifies country-specific patterns in the involvement of EAEU countries in regional value chains. Russia’s dependence on cooperative links with its EAEU partners is relatively low. In contrast, the exports of Belarus and Kazakhstan rely greatly on the Russian value added. Generally, value added flows within the Union are heavily skewed towards Russia. It has been unveiled that forward linkages in regional value chains impact positively on the volume of intraregional industrial exports. At the same time, Russia is increasing its industrial exports to third countries by leveraging the region’s production base. In our opinion, EAEU integration institutions need to implement new programs aimed at leveling of structural disproportions of regional cooperation links. It is suggested that such measures should be sector-specific and take into account forward and backward cooperative linkages among EAEU countries.

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V.Yu. Salamatov, A.V. Tangaeva, A.A. Zharkova

MEGA-REGIONAL AGREEMENTS IN THE CONTEXT OF WORLD ECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION: EU AND CHINA STRATEGIES

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Amid the transformation of the international economic system, caused by the crisis of global institutions, the rise of regionalization and the politicization of economic relations, mega- regionalism has emerged as a crucial tool in international trade. The authors examine how the EU and China apply mega-regional approaches in their trade policies to enhance their positions in the global economy, using different integration models.

The article explores how the differing strategies of the EU and China reflect their geo-eco- nomic priorities, peculiarities and responses to the challenges posed by the fragmentation of the global economy.

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A.G. Pylin

CONTOURS OF TRADE INTERACTION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND BELARUS IN THE NEW GEOECONOMIC REALITY

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The article studies the dynamics and structure of Russian-Belarusian trade relations over the past twelve years. It considers Belarus’ approaches to the multi-vector nature of its foreign economic course and their evolution under the influence of external factors. The main features of trade interaction between Russia and Belarus in the pre-sanctions and sanctions periods are highlighted. An analysis of interstate documents adopted in 2021-2024 years is carried out from the point of view of their impact on deepening economic integration within the Union State. The author concludes that the two countries are moving to a new stage of cooperation, namely from transit and energy to industrial and technological connectivity. Some recommendations for further economic interaction between the two countries are offered

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