The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 1/2024.  World Economy.

Andrey A. Maltsev

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Leading Researcher, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-3774-6311

 

GLOBAL META-RISKS IN THE POST-COVID ERA

Размер файла124-137 Размер файла  306.83 KB Размер файла Full text

Abstract

In the context of the discussion on deglobalization in economic literature, that has been intensified by the slowdown in globalization processes since the early 2010s, there was made an attempt to systemize the key challenges of the world economy at the current stage. Three enlarged clusters of global meta-risks were identified: the rise of protectionism, geopolitical uncertainty, digitalization challenges. Their consideration was based on the scheme of structuring the consequences that arise for and from the activities of the GVCs. The main conclusion was that our present reality remains as codependent world.

Keywords: geopolitical uncertainty, global meta-risks, global value chains, digitalization of the world economy, technological protectionism.

JEL: F02, F15, F23

EDN: UXTQTU

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_ 2024_1_124_137

References

  1. Labykin A. The “parallel” Turkish flow has not yet dried up // Expert. 2023. No. 12. Рp. 20–22. (In Russ.).
  2. Stolyarov A. The green era is leaving // Expert. 2023. No. 15. Рp. 13–17. (In Russ.).
  3. Dmitriev S.S. Rebooting the course towards restoring the industrial potential of the United States // World Economy and International Relations. 2022. T. 66. No. 8. Pp. 61–69. (In Russ.). DOI: https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-08-61-69.
  4. Makarov I.A. Taxonomy of trade barriers: five types of protectionism // Modern World Economy. 2023. T. 1. No. 1. Pp. 74–94. (In Russ.).
  5. Global Value Chain Development Report 2021. Beyond Production. Geneva: World Trade Organization, 2021.
  6. White House. Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth.100-day reviews under Executive Order 14017. A report by the White House: Washington, 2021.
  7. The Global Risks Report 2023 18th edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2023.
  8. Samuelson P. Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2014. Vol. 18. No. 3. Pр. 135–146. DOI: 10.1257/0895330042162403.
  9. Bhagwati J., Panagariya A., Srinivasan T.N. The Muddles Over Outsourcing // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2004. Vol. 18. No. 4. Pр. 93–114. DOI: 10.1257/0895330042632753.
  10. Dixit A.K., Grossman G.M. The Limits of Free Trade // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2005. Vol. 19. No. 3. Pр. 241–244. DOI: 10.1257/089533005774357789.
  11. Kowalski P., Lopez-Gonzalez J., Ragoussis A., Ugarte C. Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies. Paris: OECD trade policy papers. 2015. No. 179. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js33lfw0xxn-en
  12. Antràs P. Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains. Washington: World Bank Group, World Development Report 2020 Team Policy Research Working Paper 9114, 2020.
  13. Lund S. et al. Risk, Resilience, and Rebalancing in Global Value Chains. The McKinsey Global Institute, 2020.
  14. Uzyakov M. Imperative forecast: year 2023 // Expert. 2023. No. 9. Pp. 20–21. (In Russ.).
  15. Ogorodnikov E. Don’t tell Macron, he’s not their loved one // Expert. 2022. No. 47. P. 9. (In Russ.).
  16. Acemogly D., Restrepo P.Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Washington: National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 23285. 2017.
  17. Autor D.H., Hanson G. The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States // American Economic Review. 2013. Vol. 103. No. 6. Pp. 2121–2168. DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121.
  18. Meng B., Ye M., Wei S-J. Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains // Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 2020. Vol. 82. Iss. 5. Pp. 988-1016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12364.
  19. Smirnov A., Sysoev T., Skorobogaty P. Rethinking leadership and returning ideology: what Xi Jinping promises // Expert. 2022. No. 43. Pp. 13–19. (In Russ.).
  20. Ivanter A. A thousand li to power // Expert. 2022. No. 43. Pp. 20–22. (In Russ.).
  21. Magdalinskaya Yu. The Chinese Communist Party is moving into the future // Breath of China. 2022. November 10. No. 254. P. 7. (In Russ.).
  22. Ahir H., Bloom N., Furcery D. The World Uncertainty Index. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2018.
  23. Ahir H., Bloom N., Furcery D. New Index Tracks Trade Uncertainty Across the Globe. IMF Blog. September 9, 2019. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2019/09/09/blognew-index-tracks-trade-uncertainty-across-the-globe (дата обращения: 12.11.2023).
  24. Ogorodnikov E. Crisis? No, I don’t see // Expert. 2023. No. 7. P. 9. (In Russ.).
  25. World Development Report 2016. Digital Dividends. Washington: World Bank, 2016.
  26. The Global Risks Report 2021 16th edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2021.
  27. World Development Report 2021. Data for Better Lives. Washington: World Bank, 2021.
  28. The Global Risks Report 2022 17th edition. Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2022.
  29. Obukhova E. From social network to superapp and back // Expert. 2023. No. 23. Pp. 18–24. (In Russ.).
  30. Butrin D. Test first on robots // Kommersant. 2023. April 12. No. 63. P. 2. (In Russ.).
  31. Kucherena A. Electronic apocalypse // Russian newspaper. 2023. April 12. No. 78. P. 7. (In Russ.).
  32. Zorkin V. Reformer – elite – people // Russian newspaper. 2023. May 15. No. 103. P. 13. (In Russ.).
  33. Skorobogaty P. Hybrid war is absolutely total. There are no more non-combatants // Expert. 2023. No. 21. P. 56–61. (In Russ.).
  34. Seong J. et al. Global Flows: The Ties That Bind in an Interconnected World. The McKinsey Global Institute Discussion Paper, 2022 // https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-flows-the-ties-thatbind-in-an-interconnected-world#/(дата обращения: 15.09.2023).

Manuscript submission date: 09.01.2024 

For citation:

Maltsev A.A. Global meta-risks in the post-COVID era // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2024. № 1. Pp. 124-137. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2024_1_124_137 EDN: UXTQTU

  Creative Commons 4.0

© Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk, 2021 - 2024

32, Nakhimovskiy Prospekt, Moscow, Russia 117218, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Phone.: +7 (499) 724-13-91, E-mail: vestnik-ieran@inbox.ru