The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 4/2025. Finance.

Alexander A. Rubinstein

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ON THE QUESTION OF KEY RATE REDUCTION

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Since October 2024, the key rate in the Russian Federation exceeds the profitability of a significant number of economic sectors, resulting in such risks as difficulty in lending, the possibility of sliding into recession, and the emergence of a monetary overhang due to individual deposit growth. Using the example of a similar situation in the USA in 1980–1982 with the help of the model of the shifting mode of reproduction (SMR model) the importance of additional commodity supply is shown, which was provided by a strong rise in import supplies. An alternative series of precautionary measures damping the negative effects of a key rate cut is also proposed. On possible options, approximate calculations of the consequences were made with the help of the SMR model.

Keywords: inflation, key rate, recession, fixed capital investment, shifting mode of reproduction model (SMR model).

JEL: C02, E22, E42

EDN: CQJRQH

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_4_125_149

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Manuscript submission date: 25.05.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 07.08.2025

For citation:

Rubinstein A.A. On the question of key rate reduction// Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 4. Pp. 125-149. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_4_125_149 EDN: CQJRQH

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The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2025.  Finance.

Konstantin D. Plachinda

Master’s student at the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Expert at the Banking Book Interest Rate Risk Management Department, PJSC “Credit Bank of Moscow”, Moscow, Russia

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATES ON THE MOSCOW EXCHANGE INDUSTRY INDICES

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The study evaluates the impact of changes in the overnight RUONIA rate on the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange industry total return indices. The analysis included index quotations, calculation of implied in interest rate swaps RUONIA rates for T+1, and the development of predictive models using machine learning, followed by their backtesting. The results show that the models correctly predict the direction of index changes in more than 50% of cases. A connection between changes in the implied RUONIA rate and index dynamics was identified. This confirms that the RUONIA rate and its forecast can be used to improve the prediction of index price movements, optimizing portfolio theory and investor strategies.

Keywords: monetary policy, monetary policy, key rate, stocks, stock market, sectoral indices, investments.

JEL: G11, G15, G17, G18

EDN: OKWWLJ

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_2_120_143

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Manuscript submission date: 08.01.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 16.04.2025

For citation:

Plachinda K.D. The Impact of changes in overnight interest rates on the Moscow Exchange industry indices // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 2. Pp. 120-143. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_2_120_143  EDN: OKWWLJ

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The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 3/2025. Finance.

Daria A. Dinets

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0001-8734-8998

THEORETICAL BASIS OF PLATFORM FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE STATE STRUCTURAL POLICY USE

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The article provides an overview of theoretical approaches and justifications for using financial platforms in centralized and decentralized finance. The theoretical review allowed us to identify those characteristic features of financial platforms that, at this historical stage of development, can be used to overcome structural imbalances in the Russian economy and provide industrial clusters with the financial resources necessary to build up their competitive potential. As a result, the author’s approach to building the architecture of a financial platform – a supplier of resources for the implementation of priority projects for the structural transformation of the Russian economy – is proposed.

Keywords: financial platforms, tokenization of real assets, industrial clusters, financial policy.

JEL: E63

EDN: UEIEBW

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_3_123_147

References

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Manuscript submission date: 06.03.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 30.06.2025

For citation:

Dinets D.A. Theoretical Basis of Platform Financial Solutions for the State Structural Policy Use // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 3. Pp. 123-147. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_3_123_147  EDN: UEIEBW

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The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2025.  Finance.

Andrey V. Polbin

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Laboratory for Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0003-4683-8194

Margarita A. Kropocheva

Researcher, Laboratory for Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0001-5069-7094

THE IMPACT OF DOWNWARD NOMINAL WAGE RIGIDITY ON FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN RUSSIA

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This paper evaluates the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) on fiscal and monetary policy for Russian economy. We obtain a piecewise linear approximation of the solution for DSGE model, which makes it possible to take into account the constraint on wage dynamics. The results indicate greater efficiency of fiscal policy during a recession compared to an economic expansion. In addition, the dependence of the multipliers value on the nature of the shock affecting the economy is noted. The efficiency of monetary policy, on the contrary, is lower in the presence of DNWR. The results of the study allow us to conclude that DNWR plays a significant role as one of the factors weakening the impact of monetary policy and causing the asymmetry of government spending multipliers. The results of the study can be useful in planning fiscal and monetary policy, as well as in constructing DSGE models that capture more complex dynamics of economic indicators.

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, DSGE, government spending multiplier, downward nominal wage rigidity, DNWR.

JEL: C68, E63

EDN: LTTGAI

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_2_93_119

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Manuscript submission date: 18.02.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 16.04.2025

For citation:

Polbin A.V., Kropocheva M.A. The Impact of downward nominal wage rigidity on fiscal and monetary policy in Russia// Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 2. Pp. 93-119. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_2_93_119 EDN: LTTGAI

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