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The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2026. Finance.

.xmlJATS XML

Ekaterina E. Melkova

Master’s Student, Department of State Regulation of the Economy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia

 

MECHANISMS FOR FINE-TUNING MONETARY POLICY AS A TOOL FOR STIMULATING STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

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The purpose of this article is a comprehensive analysis of the current state, problems and potential of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as a financial mechanism to stimulate the structural modernization of the Russian economy, which began in 2022. It is shown that the tight monetary policy implemented in 2022–2025 in order to ensure the key macroeconomic prerequisite for structural transformation – price stability, has made it difficult for companies to access national investment resources. The article substantiates the need to activate a selective monetary policy based on fine-tuning mechanisms that can stimulate the development of priority sectors and industries of the economy, which are currently underutilized. Various options for forming an effective channel for supporting targeted economic activities using these mechanisms are being considered and evaluated. The author concludes that the mechanism for refinancing state development institutions based on taxonomy projects is promising and suggests ways to improve it.

Keywords: monetary policy, mechanisms for fine-tuning monetary policy, special refinancing instruments, inflation targeting, structural economic development, targeted project emission, development institutions.

JEL: E52, E58

EDN: SLNJOD

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_45_65

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Manuscript submission date: 10.02.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 02.04.2026

 

For citation:

Melkova E.E. Mechanisms for fine-tuning monetary policy as a tool for stimulating structural shifts in the Russian economy // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. №. 2. Pp. 45-65. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_45_65 EDN: SLNJOD

  Creative Commons 4.0

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2026. Finance.

.xmlJATS XML

Sergey A. Perekhod

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the “Fininvest” Laboratory, Associate Professor of the Department of Financial Markets and Financial Engineering, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-4606-1226

 

Vladislav V. Velichko

Researcher, “Fininvest” Laboratory, Faculty of Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

 

Anastasiia N. Kovalenko

Researcher, “Fininvest” Laboratory, Faculty of Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

 

THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON THE CAPITALIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET

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This article investigates the impact of macroeconomic policy on the capitalization of the Russian stock market under conditions of liquidity segmentation, impaired arbitrage, and shifts in investor composition following 2022. The objective of this study is to refine the transmission mechanism of monetary and fiscal impulses to the market capitalization of public companies, accounting for institutional constraints. The methodological framework is grounded in a synthesis of macro-financial literature, a comparative analysis of international empirical findings against Russian specificities, and a qualitative institutional and functional analysis. The findings indicate that in the contemporary Russian context, the influence of the key interest rate on short-term equity market dynamics is diminishing, whereas the role of ruble liquidity is increasingly pronounced. It is established that the response of market capitalization to macroeconomic impulses exhibits sectoral heterogeneity and is contingent upon the dominant transmission channel–interest rate, credit, fiscal, or foreign trade. The study substantiates that ownership structure, state participation, and investor composition act as robust modifiers of the market response. The primary result of this paper is the development of a matrix of institutional filters linking macroeconomic policy decisions to the heterogeneous responses across various segments of the Russian stock market. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the conceptualization of elements for a transmission model mapping macroeconomic policy onto the capitalization of public companies.

Keywords: macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, stock market, transmission mechanism, market liquidity, institutional constraints, stock market capitalization.

JEL: E44, E52, E62

EDN: VUFPUR

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_28_44

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Manuscript submission date: 09.02.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 02.04.2026

 

For citation:

Perekhod S.A., Velichko V.V., Kovalenko A.N. The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy on the Capitalization of the Russian Stock Market // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 2. Pp. 28-44. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_28_44 EDN: VUFPUR

  Creative Commons 4.0

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 1/2026. Finance.

.xmlJATS XML

Fedor E. Bobrovnik

Master’s Student at the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0008-5965-6385

 

Olga S. Vinogradova

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-9575-9794

 

Ashot G. Mirzoyan

Senior Lecturer of the Department of Innovations in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0005-9275-0099

 

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN PUBLICATIONS OF INVESTMENT TELEGRAM CHANNELS AND STOCK RETURNS OF PUBLIC RUSSIAN COMPANIES

Размер файла191-217 
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This study examines the need to regulate investment Telegram channels that publish not only financial news but also signals. A sample of five Russian channels with recommendations, strategies, and portfolio demonstrations was used for the analysis. The impact of publications on the share profitability of public companies was assessed using text processing methods, machine learning (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Neural networks) and econometric approaches (ARIMAX, Event Study). The publications were classified into four types of signals: no signal, buy, sell or hold. Four types of publications about stock price changes were identified. In 11% of cases, publications with a signal caused a change in the share price. This confirms that large channels can influence the market, but the pro- portion of such cases is small. The authors conclude that the need for strict regulation of Telegram channels is still insignificant.

Keywords: stock market regulation, stock price dynamics, investment signals, event analysis, excess profitability, Russian stock market, impact of social networks, private investors, Telegram channels, econometric modeling.

JEL: C32, C53, C61, G14, G17

EDN: LBMQBG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_1_191_217

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Manuscript submission date: 11.11.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 24.02.2026

 

Author’s declared contribution:

F.E. Bobrovnik – collection of statistical data, critical analysis of literature, tabular and graphical representation of the results, performing numerical calculations.

O.S. Vinogradova – problem statement, development of the concept of the article.

A.G. Mirzoyan – description of the results and formation of conclusions of the study.

 

For citation:

Bobrovnik F.E., Vinogradova O.S., Mirzoyan A.G. The association between publications of investment Telegram channels and stock returns of public Russian companies // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 1. Pp. 191-217. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_1_191_217 EDN: LBMQBG

  Creative Commons 4.0

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2026. Finance.

.xmlJATS XML

Sergey A. Andryushin

Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0003-2620-8515

 

Irina S. Bukina

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-9289-2899

 

Anton P. Sviridov

Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0001-7175-1213

 

MONETARY POLICY OF THE BANK OF RUSSIA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2022–2025

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In 2018, the journal “Economic Science of Contemporary Russia” published an article by Vitaly Efimovich Manevich, a Soviet and Russian economist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, and Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The article “Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Dynamics of the Russian Economy in 2015–2017” was published after the author’s death. The article’s main conclusion was as follows: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is capable of influencing economic growth not only by regulating aggregate demand and redistributing resources between economic activities, but also by jointly creating, with the Russian government, additional sources for financing the budget deficit, directly linked to the monetary base and the country’s domestic debt. The authors, in their study, confirm V.E. Manevich’s findings on the limitations of inflation targeting in the face of external challenges and substantiate the need for a changed approach to managing the exchange rate and money supply. Using statistical data on the Russian economy for 2022–2025, the article demonstrates that a structural liquidity surplus of the bank sector, coupled with high interest rates, constrains lending to the real sector of the economy and slows economic growth. Based on V.E. Manevich’s methodology, the need for greater coordination of monetary and fiscal policies in managing the money supply and public debt is substantiated.

Keywords: Bank of Russia, exchange rate, monetary base, deposits, budget deficit, gold and foreign exchange reserves, foreign assets, loans, interest rate.

JEL: E00, E22, E52, H50, O11

EDN: AHWORH

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_7_27

 

References

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Manuscript submission date: 09.02.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 02.04.2026

 

For citation:

Andryushin S.A., Bukina I.S., Sviridov A.P.  Monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the development of the Russian economy in 2022–2025 // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 2. Pp. 7-27. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_7_27 EDN: AHWORH

  Creative Commons 4.0

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 6/2025. Finance.

.xmlJATS XML

Boris D. Klyukin

Postgraduate Student at Lomonosov Moscow State; Chief Analyst, Industrial Development Fund (Federal State Autonomous Institution “Russian Fund for Technological Development”), Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0000-8038-6035

 

CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM INDICATORS TO DETERMINE THRESHOLD VALUES OF THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

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The paper estimates the impact and threshold values of financial system indicators on the economic growth rates in 34 countries. Bisecting K-Means allows for making reasonable assumptions about their optimal combinations and levels. The cluster analysis identified seven latent groups, each differing in their financial system indicators. Calculating the weighted average growth rate for each group allowed for a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial factors and economic growth. An analysis of stock market turnover revealed that its growth is associated with accelerated economic growth, although the direction of this influence remains to be determined. The author also managed to roughly determine the lower limit of the turnover indicator (~30%), below which there is no positive impact on the economy. An analysis of the relative size of domestic loans to the private sector found arguments in favor of the existence of an optimal range of bank loans (75–125% of GDP) and thus a threshold, which is consistent with the findings of other authors. The analysis also suggested the existence of a lower limit on loan volume at 25%. The results of the study can be used in developing and substantiating target indicators for national economic policy.

Keywords: cluster analysis, stock market turnover, relative credit size, threshold values, economic growth.

JEL: F63, O57, P52

EDN: GPARPU

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_192_215

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Manuscript submission date: 29.05.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 18.11.2025

 

For citation:

Klyukin B.D. Cluster analysis of financial system indicators to determine threshold values of their contribution to economic growth // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 6. Pp. 192-215. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_192_215 EDN: GPARPU

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