The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 4/2023.  Publications of young authors.

Denis A. Sudarev

Post-Graduate Student of the Economics Faculty of the M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University,

Senior Lecturer of the Economics Faculty of the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-7812-7461

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL FACTORS ON FEDERAL BUDGET REVENUE FORECAST ACCURACY IN RUSSIA

197-216

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Abstract

The purpose of the study is assessment of impact of political factors, such as electoral cycles and ideological range of parliament on systematic deviations of actual revenues of the Russian federal budget from its planned values. The study consists of two stages. On the first stage the quality of federal budget revenue forecast on the period from 2000 to 2022 is made (actual value of revenue is compared with planned one in the first version of the budget law). It is shown that official federal revenue forecasts are characterized with statistically significant under-prediction. The second stage is the empirical assessment of potential factors impact on pessimism in revenue forecasting. The following results of the conducted evaluation are proposed: federal electoral cycles are not statistically significant and ideological structure of the parliament is weakly significant factors of revenue forecasts quality. The result of the study gives the motivation for further investigation of key actors’ incentives during budget forecasting.

Keywords: budget process, fiscal forecasting, budget revenue, forecast accuracy, electoral cycles, partisan fragmentation, ideology.

JEL: H68, P16

EDN: ZOCLTM

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2023_4_197_216

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Manuscript submission date: 18.06.2023

For citation:

Sudarev D.A. Assessment of the impact of political factors on federal budget revenue forecast accuracy in Russia // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2023. № 4. Pp. 197-216. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2023_4_197_216 EDN: ZOCLTM

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