The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 5/2026. Finance.
JATS XML
Andrey V. Koshkin
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Lecturer, Department of Economic Theory, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia
ORCID: 0000-0001-9942-7722
SEGMENTED CAPITAL MOBILITY AND MONETARY TRANSMISSION: RUSSIA AFTER 2022 AS A NEW CONTEXT FOR THE MUNDELL-FLEMING TRILEMMA
135-163 |
495.09 KB |
This paper examines how the connection between the money market rate and lending to non-financial organizations has changed after the segmentation of the external capital account in 2022. Russian monthly data for 2014–2025 are used for the analysis. The main focus is on the interest rate channel of monetary transmission. It shows that the correlation between changes in RUONIA and credit growth rate becomes negative. Regression estimates are consistent with this shift, although they do not reach standard levels of statistical significance. The analysis is complemented by the spread between RUONIA and the key rate. The paper is positioned as an exploratory empirical analysis. The results suggest that the segmentation of external capital flows may strengthen the domestic interest rate channel of monetary policy. The Russian case of 2022 is interpreted as a new context for testing the constraints implied by the Mundell–Fleming trilemma.
Keywords: Mundell–Fleming trilemma, capital mobility, monetary transmission, interest rate channel, lending.
JEL: E52, F32, F41
EDN: IYQCMP
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_5_135_163
References
- Golovnin M.Yu. Monetary Policy of Russia: Reaction to New External Challenges // Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2023. No. 1. Pp. 7–20. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.52180/2073-6487_2023_1_7_20.
- Golovnin M.Yu. New Trends in the Development of the World Economy and Their Impact on Russia // Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia. 2024. Vol. 248. No. 4. Pp. 85–97. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.38197/2072-2060-2024-248-4-85-97.
- Golotvin N.D., Seregina S.F. The Possibility of Easing the Constraints of the Macroeconomic Policy Trilemma in Modern Conditions // Economic Policy. 2025. Vol. 20. No. 2. Pp. 6–33. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2025-2-6-33.
- Gorodnov A.M., Zubarev A.V. The IS Curve and the Transmission Mechanism under Inflation Targeting // HSE Economic Journal. 2025. Vol. 29. No. 2. Pp. 191–213. (In Russ.).
- Zvereva V.A. The Operation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: The Role of Household Heterogeneity and Spatial Effects // Money and Credit. 2025. Vol. 84. No. 3. Pp. 3–27. (In Russ.).
- Zvereva V.A. Asymmetry of the Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy: Sectoral and Regional Aspects // Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2026. No. 4. Pp. 100–129. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2026-4-100-129.
- Kolesnik S.I., Kartaev F.S., Zubarev A.V. Asymmetry of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy: Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators // Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025. No. 10. Pp. 44–61. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-10-44-61.
- Koshkin A.V. Assessing Fiscal Distortions of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Russia: An Empirical Analysis for 2010–2024 // Journal of Applied Economic Research. 2026. Vol. 25. No. 2. Pp. 545–569. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.2.018.
- Lyakin A.N. Three Crises Following One Scenario // St. Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies. 2018. Vol. 34. No. 1. Pp. 4–25. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu05.2018.101.
- Lyakin A.N. The Crisis of 2022–…: Potential Scale and Expected Consequences // Russian Economic Journal. 2022. No. 3. Pp. 4–24. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33983/0130-9757-2022-3-4-24.
- Mogilat A.N. An Overview of the Main Channels of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and the Instruments of Their Analysis at the Bank of Russia // Money and Credit. 2017. No. 9. Pp. 3–9. (In Russ.).
- Novoselov A.S., Faleev A.V. Problems of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy in Shock Periods of Economic Development // Finance: Theory and Practice. 2026. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2026-30-6-1998-01.
- Fleming J.M. Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates // IMF Staff Papers. 1962. Vol. 9. No. 3. Pp. 369–380.
- Forbes K.J., Warnock F.E. Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment // Journal of International Economics. 2012. Vol. 88. No. 2. Pp. 235–251. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.03.006.
- Koshkin A. Beyond the Trilemma: How Hybrid Exchange Rate Regimes and Segmented Capital Flows Reconfigure Monetary Autonomy in Emerging Markets // Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2026. Vol. 19. No. 7. Article 506. DOI: 10.3390/jrfm19070506.
- Mundell R.A. Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates // Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science. 1963. Vol. 29. No. 4. Pp. 475–485.
- Obstfeld M. Trilemmas and Trade-offs: Living with Financial Globalisation // BIS Working Papers. 2015. No. 480.
- Rey H. Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence // Proceedings of the Economic Policy Symposium. Jackson Hole, 2013. Pp. 1–2.
Manuscript submission date: 20.082026
Manuscript acceptance date: 20.10.2026
For citation:
Koshkin A.V. Segmented capital mobility and monetary transmission: Russia after 2022 as a new context for the Mundell-Fleming trilemma // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 5. Pp. 135-163. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_5_135_163 EDN: IYQCMP



135-163
495.09 KB 




