The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 2/2026. Economics and Management.

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Alexey I. Boldiasov

Market analyst, PromKhimResurs-D LLC, Dzerzhinsk, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-7307-900X

OPTIMAL SAFETY STOCK CALCULATING IN THE NON-FERROUS METALS WHOLESALE TRADE

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The work is devoted to the development of models of optimal insurance inventory for trading enterprises specializing in the wholesale of non-ferrous metals. The approaches to optimizing the insurance stock in the literature have been identified: heuristic; level of service; robust optimization; the “Newsvendor” model and its variations; multi-criteria and targeted optimization; cost minimization; loss minimization; use of digital tools. The insurance inventory in the industry is the minimum amount of inventory that guarantees the required level of service during the time before the replenishment of commodity resources or the organization of transit delivery to the customer with an unknown discrete, integer distribution of demand (order volume). Two models based on the universal estimation of probability bounds by Chebyshev and Cantelli inequalities, respectively, and a distributed robust optimization model based on a linear programming problem with a constraint on moments and an upper bound on a random variable are proposed. Empirical research based on real data shows that with a service level of 0,90 and 0,95, the difference in results between the compared models is only 1–2 tons, which makes a more conservative solution preferable, since it is universal for any distribution. In the example under consideration, with a service level of 0,99 corresponding to the minimum probability of shortage, models based on probabilistic inequalities can obtain an insurance stock of 70 to 100 tons, while a model based on a linear programming problem recommends keeping an insurance stock equal to the maximum value of demand (order volume). In this case, the solution is a compromise between the high opportunity costs of storing insurance inventory and the loss of robustness to ignorance of distribution due to the introduction of an upper limit on demand (order volume).

Keywords: wholesale trade, non-ferrous metals, insurance stock, service level, robust optimization, Chebyshev inequality, Cantelli inequality, linear programming.

JEL: L81, L61, M21

EDN: BJPJVS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_99_123

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Manuscript submission date: 09.02.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 02.04.2026

For citation:

Boldiasov A.I. Optimal safety stock calculating in the non-ferrous metals wholesale trade // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 2. Pp. 99-123. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_2_99_123 EDN: BJPJVS

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