The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 5/2023.  Economics and Management.

Sergey N. Mityakov

Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor, Director of the Institute of Economics and Management, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-7086-7457

Evgeniy S. Mityakov

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor at the Informatics Faculty of the Institute for Cybersecurity and Digital Technologies, MIREA – Russian Technological University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0001-6579-0988

DEVELOPING THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC SECURITY RISKS AND THRESHOLDS

83-113

802.58 KB

Full text

Abstract

The work’s purpose is to develop the theory of economic security risks and threshold values, considering these economic categories in interrelation. The authors examine key approaches to risk assessment and economic security threshold values formation and demonstrate relationship between classification characteristics of the two economic categories. Three main models of threshold values are considered. In a model containing two risk zones, threshold values serve as some reference points separating acceptable values of economic security indicators from unacceptable ones. The “traffic light” model is a more preferable one. It contains critical and target threshold levels and three risk zones. The third model, containing seven risk zones, corresponds to six conditional threshold levels, which leads to a more accurate assessment of the state of economic security of the objects under study compared to other models, and can be effectively used, for example, for classification purposes. The authors note that for monitoring threats to economic security, it is important not only to position the value of the economic security indicator in the corresponding risk zone, but also to analyze its changes over time, which makes it possible to compensate for system errors in determining the threshold values by studying the self-development of the system. They give examples of the use of volatility analysis and elasticity theory in the tasks of risk assessment, opening up new opportunities for economic security monitoring.

Keywords: economic security, economic security risks, risk zones, economic security indicators, threshold values.

JEL: O11, D81

EDN: DRMHNE

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2023_5_83_113

References

1. Waring A., Glendon I. (2001) Managing Risk. Cengage Learning Business Press London, 2001.
2. Thurik R. Exports and Small Business in the Netherlands: Presence Potential and Performance. International Small Business Journal. 1993. No. 11. Pp. 49–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/026624269301100303.
3. Ting, W. Multinational Risk Assessment and Management: Strategies for Investment and Marketing Decisions. Quorum Books, New York, 1988.
4. Knowles, W. Jordan since 1989: A Study in Political Economy. I. B. Tauris, London, 2005.
5. Al Khattab, A., Al-Rawad, M., Al Soboa, S. and Al-Khattab, K. Country Risk Management in a Developing Country. Journal of Service Science and Management. 2015. No. 8. Pp. 24–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jssm.2015.81003.
6. Avdiysky V.Y., Bezdenezhnykh V.M., Kataeva E.G. Risk management as a key element of ensuring the implementation of a risk-oriented approach in the activities of economic entities // Economy. Taxes. Right. 2017. Vol. 10. No. 6. Pp. 6–15. (In Russ.).
7. Avdiysky V.I., Bezdenezhnykh V.M. Economic security of mod ern Russia: a risk-oriented approach to its security // Economy. Taxes. Right. 2016. Vol. 9. No. 3. Pp. 6–13. (In Russ.).
8. Dudin M.N., Lyasnikov N.V., Protsenko O.D., Tsvetkov V.A. Quantification and assessment of risks of hydrocarbon extraction projects in the Arctic // Economic policy. 2017. Vol. 12. No. 4. Pp. 168–195. DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2017-4-07. (In Russ.).
9. Gorodetsky A. E. On the initial prerequisites for the development of a national system for managing economic security risks // Economic Security. 2018. Vol. 1. No. 1. Pp. 9–20. DOI: 10.18334/ecsec.1.1.100484. (In Russ.).
10. Methodological approaches to the creation and organization of the functioning of the federal risk management system / V.G. Starovoitov, S.N. Sylvestrov, A. I. Selivanov, D.V. Troshin // Management Sciences. 2018. Vol. 8. No. 3. Pp. 64–73. DOI: 10.26794/2404-022X-2018-8-3-64-73. (In Russ.).
11. Bauer V.P., Silvestrov S.N., Smirnov V.V. An approach to the development of modeling tools for the federal risk management system // Innovations. 2018. No. 6(236). 14–20. (In Russ.).
12. Silvestrov S.N. Management of global risks of sustainable development // Development and security. 2023. No. 2(18). Pp. 4–13. DOI :10.46960/2713-2633_2023_2_4. (In Russ.).
13. Forming a risk management system in foreign practice / S.N. Sylvestrov, S.A. Pobyvaev, N.V. Kuznetsov [and others] // Questions of economics and law. 2017. No. 110. Pp. 19–23. (In Russ.).
14. Osypov G.V., Lokosov V.V. The Limits of the Fall // Sociology and Politics. M.: ISPY RAS. 1995. Рp. 556–568. (In Russ.).
15. Glazyev S.Yu. Beyond the critical line. (On the concept of macroeconomic policy in light of ensuring the country’s economic security). M.: Russian Economic Journal, 1996. (In Russ.).
16. Economic security of Russia. Textbook General course / Ed.: Senchagov. 2nd ed. : Delo, 2005. (In Russ.).
17. The strategy of economic security in the development of indicative plans for socioeconomic development for the long-term and medium-term perspective: monograph. – M.: Institute of Economics, RAS, 2009. (In Russ.).
18. Senchagov V.K. Modernization of the financial sphere // Voprosy ekonomiki. 2011 № 3. Pp. 53–64. (In Russ.).
19. Economic security of regions of Russia: monograph / Ed.: V.K. Senchagov. N. Novgorod: Rastr-NN, 2014. (In Russ.).
20. Economic security of Russia: general course: textbook / Ed.: V.K. Senchagov. 3rd ed., revised. and additional. M.: BINOM. Laboratory of Knowledge, 2009. (In Russ.).
21. Senchagov V.K. Economy, finance, prices: evolution, transformation, security / V.K. Senchagov. M.: Ankil, 2010. (In Russ.).
22. Glazyev S.Yu., Lokosov V.V. Estimation of extreme critical values of indicators of the state of Russian society and their use in management of social and economic development // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Science. 2012. Vol. 82. No. 7. Pp. 587–614. (In Russ.).
23. Avdiyski V.I., Senchagov V.V. Methodologies for determining the threshold values of the main (priority) risk factors and threats to the economic security of economic entities // Economy. Taxes. Right. 2014. No. 4. Pp. 73–78. (In Russ.).
24. Eryashvili N.D., Barikaev E.N. Definition, criteria and threshold values of economic security // Bulletin of the Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2009. No. 12. Pp. 30–33. (In Russ.).
25. Vissarionov A.B., Gumerov R.R. On the use of limit (threshold) values of indicators of economic security of the Russian Federation // Administrative sciences. 2017. Vol. 7. 3. Pp. 12–20. (In Russ.).
26. Lokosov V.V. Estimation of social and economic risks by the method of extremely critical (threshold) indicators // Narodonaselenie. 2021. Vol. 24. No. 3. Pp. 8–17. DOI: 10.19181/population.2021.24.3.1. (In Russ.).
27. Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Bednorz, Andrzej. Threshold theory: Modeling risk attitude, e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, ISSN 1734-039X, De Gruyter Open, Berlin. 2017. Vol. 13. Iss. 4. Рp. 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1515/fiqf-2016-0039
28. Benito, S., López-Martín, C. & Navarro, M.Á. Assessing the importance of the choice threshold in quantifying market risk under the POT approach (EVT). Risk Management. 2023. Vol. 25. Article 6. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41283-022-00106-w.
29. Afontsev S.A. Conceptual foundations of the analysis of national and international economic security // Legal science and practice: Bulletin of the Nizhny Novgorod Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2020. No. 3(51). Pp. 231–234. (In Russ.).
30. Kalina A.V., Savelyeva I.P. Formation of threshold values of indicative indicators of economic security of Russia and its regions // Herald of YuUU. Ser. “Economics and Management”. 2014. No. 4. T. 8. Pp. 15–24. (In Russ.).
31. Karanina E.V. Conceptual aspects of complex express diagnostics of the level of economic security and rating of regions of modern Russia // Innovation development of economics. 2016. No. 6–2 (36). Pp. 248–256. (In Russ.).
32. Medvedeva Ya.A. Monitoring of the state of economic safety of Russia and the Central Federal District // Technical and technological problems of the service. 2017. No. 4. Р. 29–31. (In Russ.).
33. Glazyev S.Yu. The basis of the economic security of the country: an alternative reformation course // Rossiyskij zhurnal. 1997. No. 1. Pp. 12–17. (In Russ.).
34. Krivorotov V.V., Kalyna A.V., Belyk I.S. Threshold values of indicative indicators for diagnostics of the economic security of the Russian Federation at the current stage // Herald of UrFU. Economy and management series. 2019. Vol. 18. No. 6. Pp. 892–910. (In Russ.).
35. Infantyev K.A., Shubnikov Yu.B. On the spectrum of modern threats to economic safety and their threshold values // Bulletin of the Saint Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2014. No. 4(64). Pp. 132–136. (In Russ.).
36. Karavaeva I.V., Ivanov E.A., Lev M.Yu. Passporting and assessment of the indicators of the state of economic security of Russia // Economy, business and law. 2020. Vol. 10. No. 8. Pp. 2179-2198. DOI: 10.18334/epp.10.8.110705. (In Russ.).
37. Mytyakov S.N., Mytyakov E.S. Analysis of crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia with the use of quick indicators of economic security // Problems of forecasting. 2021. No. 3(186). Pp. 29–40. DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-186-29-40. (In Russ.).
38. Senchagov V.K., Mityakov S.N. Using the index method to estimate the level of economic security // Bulletin of the Academy of Economic Security of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2011. No. 5. Pp. 41–50. (In Russ.).
39. Mytyakov E.S., Mytyakov S.N. Risk assessment in the tasks of monitoring threats to economic security // Trudy NGTU named after RE. Alekseeva. 2018. No. 1 (120). 44–51. DOI: 10.46960/1816-210X_2018_1_44. (In Russ.).
40. Mytyakov E.S. To the question of the relevance of the use of threshold values in monitoring the economic security of Russian regions // Economic security of Russia: problems and perspectives: materials of the VII International Scientific and Practical Conference. Nizhny Novgorod. Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University named after RE. Alekseeva. 2019. Pp. 187–191. (In Russ.).
41. Mytyakov S.N., Murashova N.A. Methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of the execution of strategic planning documents in the area of innovative activity support // Economy and Entrepreneurship. 2020. No. 2(115). Pp. 685–689. DOI: 10.34925/EIP.2020.115.2.137. (In Russ.).
42. Mytyakov E.S., Mytyakov S.N. Analysis of short-term indicators of economic safety of regions // Fundamentalnye issledovaniya. 2015. No. 12–1. Pp. 160–164. (In Russ.).
43. Mytyakov S.N., Mytyakova O.I. Business planning as an element of adaptive management // Herald of the Nizhny Novgorod University. N.Y. Lobachevsky Series: Economy and finance. 2005. No. 1. Pp. 425–432. (In Russ.).
44. Pozdeev V.L. The end of 2020 – recovery or recession? // Development and security. 2020. No. 4(8). Pp. 55–67. DOI: 10.46960/2713-2633_2020_4_55. (In Russ.).

Manuscript submission date: 28.08.2023

For citation:

Mityakov S.N., Mityakov E.S. Developing the Theory of Economic Security Risks and Thresholds // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2023. № 5. Pp. 83-113. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2023_5_83_113 EDN: DRMHNE

  Creative Commons 4.0