The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 4/2025. Finance.

Alexander A. Rubinstein

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ON THE QUESTION OF KEY RATE REDUCTION

125-149

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Since October 2024, the key rate in the Russian Federation exceeds the profitability of a significant number of economic sectors, resulting in such risks as difficulty in lending, the possibility of sliding into recession, and the emergence of a monetary overhang due to individual deposit growth. Using the example of a similar situation in the USA in 1980–1982 with the help of the model of the shifting mode of reproduction (SMR model) the importance of additional commodity supply is shown, which was provided by a strong rise in import supplies. An alternative series of precautionary measures damping the negative effects of a key rate cut is also proposed. On possible options, approximate calculations of the consequences were made with the help of the SMR model.

Keywords: inflation, key rate, recession, fixed capital investment, shifting mode of reproduction model (SMR model).

JEL: C02, E22, E42

EDN: CQJRQH

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_4_125_149

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Manuscript submission date: 25.05.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 07.08.2025

For citation:

Rubinstein A.A. On the question of key rate reduction// Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 4. Pp. 125-149. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_4_125_149 EDN: CQJRQH

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