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  6. Segal A.E., Malkov A.V., Osadchev A.V. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL INVESTOR SENTIMENT AND INITIAL IPO RETURNS IN RUSSIA’S “NEW REALITY” (SINCE 2022)

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 6/2025. Finance.

 

Alexander E. Segal

Head of Corporate Finance Practice in Equity Capital Markets, PJSC Sberbank, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 009-0004-1534-9376

 

Anton V. Malkov

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Managing Director for Capital Markets, JSC T-Bank, Moscow, Russia

 

Andrey V. Osadchev

Manager of the Capital Markets Department, JSC T-Bank, Moscow, Russia

 

THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETAIL INVESTOR SENTIMENT AND INITIAL IPO RETURNS IN RUSSIA’S “NEW REALITY” (SINCE 2022)

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Against the backdrop of the transformation of the Russian stock market after 2022, the relevance of studying the factors influencing the pricing of shares during their initial public offerings (IPOs) has increased. This article presents the results of the first stage of the re- search – an analysis of the relationships between the initial returns of IPOs on the Russian stock market during the period 2022–2024 and retail market sentiment, retail demand in monetary terms and the number of investors. The correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between the level of sentiment and first-day returns, while retail demand in monetary terms and the number of investors showed no significant relationship with IPO returns. The study also identified a persistent behavioral pattern: retail investors act as net buyers (their total purchases exceed their total sales) on the first trading day. The findings open up prospects for further modeling of causal relationships between sentiment, retail demand, the number of investors and initial IPO returns on ex- tended datasets.

Keywords: IPO, underpricing, sentiment, retail investors, retail demand, behavioral finance, Russian stock market, investor behavior.

JEL: G14, G11, G32

EDN: IKYUDG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_170_191

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Manuscript submission date: 17.07.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 18.11.2025

 

For citation:

Segal A.E., Malkov A.V., Osadchev A.V. The Analysis of the relationship between retail investor sentiment and initial IPO returns in Russia’s “new reality” (since 2022) // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 6. Pp. 170-191. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_170_191 EDN: IKYUDG

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