The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 6/2025. Finance.

Boris D. Klyukin

Postgraduate Student at Lomonosov Moscow State; Chief Analyst, Industrial Development Fund (Federal State Autonomous Institution “Russian Fund for Technological Development”), Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0000-8038-6035

CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM INDICATORS TO DETERMINE THRESHOLD VALUES OF THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

192-215

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The paper estimates the impact and threshold values of financial system indicators on the economic growth rates in 34 countries. Bisecting K-Means allows for making reasonable assumptions about their optimal combinations and levels. The cluster analysis identified seven latent groups, each differing in their financial system indicators. Calculating the weighted average growth rate for each group allowed for a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial factors and economic growth. An analysis of stock market turnover revealed that its growth is associated with accelerated economic growth, although the direction of this influence remains to be determined. The author also managed to roughly determine the lower limit of the turnover indicator (~30%), below which there is no positive impact on the economy. An analysis of the relative size of domestic loans to the private sector found arguments in favor of the existence of an optimal range of bank loans (75–125% of GDP) and thus a threshold, which is consistent with the findings of other authors. The analysis also suggested the existence of a lower limit on loan volume at 25%. The results of the study can be used in developing and substantiating target indicators for national economic policy.

Keywords: cluster analysis, stock market turnover, relative credit size, threshold values, economic growth.

JEL: F63, O57, P52

EDN: GPARPU

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_192_215

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Manuscript submission date: 29.05.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 18.11.2025

For citation:

Klyukin B.D. Cluster analysis of financial system indicators to determine threshold values of their contribution to economic growth // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 6. Pp. 192-215. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_192_215 EDN: GPARPU

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