Bobrovnik F.E., Vinogradova O.S., Mirzoyan A.G. THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN PUBLICATIONS OF INVESTMENT TELEGRAM CHANNELS AND STOCK RETURNS OF PUBLIC RUSSIAN COMPANIES

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 1/2026. Finance.

Fedor E. Bobrovnik

Master’s Student at the Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

Olga S. Vinogradova

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-9575-9794

Ashot G. Mirzoyan

Senior Lecturer of the Department of Innovations in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0005-9275-0099

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN PUBLICATIONS OF INVESTMENT TELEGRAM CHANNELS AND STOCK RETURNS OF PUBLIC RUSSIAN COMPANIES

191-217

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This study examines the need to regulate investment Telegram channels that publish not only financial news but also signals. A sample of five Russian channels with recommendations, strategies, and portfolio demonstrations was used for the analysis. The impact of publications on the share profitability of public companies was assessed using text processing methods, machine learning (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Neural networks) and econometric approaches (ARIMAX, Event Study). The publications were classified into four types of signals: no signal, buy, sell or hold. Four types of publications about stock price changes were identified. In 11% of cases, publications with a signal caused a change in the share price. This confirms that large channels can influence the market, but the pro- portion of such cases is small. The authors conclude that the need for strict regulation of Telegram channels is still insignificant.

Keywords: stock market regulation, stock price dynamics, investment signals, event analysis, excess profitability, Russian stock market, impact of social networks, private investors, Telegram channels, econometric modeling.

JEL: C32, C53, C61, G14, G17

EDN: LBMQBG

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_1_191_217

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Manuscript submission date: 11.11.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 24.02.2026

Author’s declared contribution:

F.E. Bobrovnik – collection of statistical data, critical analysis of literature, tabular and graphical representation of the results, performing numerical calculations.

O.S. Vinogradova – problem statement, development of the concept of the article.

A.G. Mirzoyan – description of the results and formation of conclusions of the study.

For citation:

Bobrovnik F.E., Vinogradova O.S., Mirzoyan A.G. The association between publications of investment Telegram channels and stock returns of public Russian companies // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2026. № 1. Pp. 191-217. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2026_1_191_217 EDN: LBMQBG

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