The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 3/2025. Economics and Management.

Sergey N. Mytyakov

Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Рrofessor, Director of the Institute of Economics and Management, Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University named after R.E. Alekseev, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-7086-7457

METHOD OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING ECONOMIC CRISES

58-83

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The purpose of this work is to develop a new method for analyzing economic crises that allows for timely detection of signs of emerging threats. Definitions of concepts are given, the main parameters of a crisis and parameters of crisis diffusion are determined. A model of crisis propagation as a sum of two logistic curves is presented. A multi-level system of indicators for monitoring economic crises with an information update period of one month has been developed. An algorithm for monitoring an economic crisis is proposed that includes six stages: a preliminary stage associated with the analysis of possible root causes and triggers of a crisis; monitoring of leading indicators; multi-level operational monitoring of economic crises; processing, generalization and analysis of information; forecasting; development of recommendations for the timely detection of crises. The new method for analyzing crises has been verified using the example of the development of the economic crisis of 2008–2009.

Keywords: economic crises, precursors, diffusion, operational monitoring of economic crises, indicators and threshold values, forecasting.

JEL: G01, F44

EDN: PBGGBO

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_3_58_83

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Manuscript submission date: 20.04.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 30.06.2025

For citation:

Mytyakov S.N. Method of Analysis and Forecasting Economic Crises // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 3 Pp. 58-83. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_3_58_83 EDN: PBGGBO

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