Loktionova A.A., Mirzoyan A.G. POLITICAL NEWS’ IMPACT ON RUSSIAN COMPANIES’ STOCK PRICES

The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 1/2025. Finance.

Alina A. Loktionova

Employee of the Department of Finance and Credit, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0007-5421-1929

Ashot G. Mirzoyan

Employee of the Department of Innovation Economics, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0009-0005-9275-0099

POLITICAL NEWS’ IMPACT ON RUSSIAN COMPANIES’ STOCK PRICES

152-166

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This study explores the impact of political news on the stock prices of Russian companies over the period 1 September 2021 –– 31 August 2023. The sample includes 200 companies, for each of which the industry of activity and the region of location of the headquarters were determined. Political news data were sourced from 50 Telegram channels, and 20 thematic topics were created using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. The research tests hypotheses of the impact of political news on stock returns throughout the entire period in both regional and industry contexts. The results show that integrating political news improves return forecasts for 117 companies, with effects consistent across industries and regions. The study highlights the political news topics that had the most significant impact on Russian companies during the analyzed period.

Keywords: political news, textual analysis, Russian stock market, stock return forecasting, industry analysis, regional analysis.

JEL: C32, C53, G17

EDN: RHVODJ

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_1_152_166

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Manuscript submission date: 12.01.2025

For citation:

Loktionova A.A., Mirzoyan A.G. Political news’ impact on Russian companies’ stock prices // Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 1. Pp. 152-166. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_1_152_166 EDN: RHVODJ

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