№ 1/2023

Date of placement: 03.03.2023

FINANCE

 

M.Yu. Golovnin 

MONETARY POLICY IN RUSSIA: REACTION TO NEW EXTERNAL CHALLENGES

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Under the influence of new external shocks, primarily unprecedented sanctions against the Russian economy, the main challenges for the monetary policy were sharply increased inflation rates and a short-term depreciation of the ruble exchange rate, the need to maintain the normal functioning of the banking system and to support economic activity. In 2022 the Central Bank of Russia undertook several important measures, such as a sharp increase in the interest rate and its subsequent gradual decrease, regulatory easing for banks, and foreign exchange restrictions, which made it possible to overcome the above challenges in the short term. To build a new model of economic growth in the medium and long term, it is necessary to create the new framework combining measures of monetary and fiscal policy and regulation of financial markets in order to promote the structural changes in the Russian economy; to continue using foreign exchange regulation measures adjusting them to promote the development of the national economy; to develop new instruments for regulating the exchange rate and new approaches to regulating the circulation of digital currencies.

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ISSUES OF ECONOMIC THEORY

 

A.A. Maltsev, S.V. Chichilimov 

TO THE QUESTION OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE OPPOSITION OF FREE TRADE AND PROTECTIONISM IN THE 20TH AND 21TH CENTURY

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The 20th century was marked by the emergence and formation of new economic centers of power in the world economy. This is where a combination of factors came into play. Firstly, with the acceleration of economic development and the massification of industry and consumption in the 1920s, the need to find new markets increased. Secondly, fundamental technical, economic and social shifts in society brought to life the first (1870–1913) and second (1950–2010) waves of globalization. Thirdly, the process of decolonization of the world economy, which ended by 1975, formed the demand for a self-sufficient and independent economic policy of the Third World countries. As a result, the Great Modern Stage (GMS, 1920s–2020s) took shape, its main distinguishing feature, according to the authors, being coexistence of free trade and protectionism, which had previously successively replaced each other in the world economic practice. 

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S.S. Vinokurov 

BEHAVIORAL “ANOMALIES” AND THE COST OF DECISION-MAKING

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The author explores the possibility of generalizing the main results of behavioral economics (importance of the status-quo and notions of justice for decision-making, endowment effect, transactional utility, mental accounting, dynamic inconsistency and the lack of self-control, social preferences) based on the assumption of costly choices and the ability to refuse choice and maintain the status-quo, using the formalization of the rational inattention concept. The author shows that costly choices may explain why behavioral biases remain within economic logic, even in the case of a utility-maximizing individual. Some remarks on economic policy are made as a result.

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ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

 

I.A. Nikolaev 

DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: OPPORTUNITIES AND PROSPECTS IN THE SUB-SANCTIONED ECONOMY OF RUSSIA

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The article analyzes the possibility of using traditional drivers of economic growth, such as consumer demand, investment and export, as the main factors to counteract the unprecedented sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. The state and prospects of each of the main factors are considered. It is argued that in the sub-sanctioned economy of Russia, one should not count on traditional drivers of economic growth helping quickly overcome the severe consequences of sanctions pressure and switch to economic growth. Based on this, it is required to pursue a realistic economic policy, using the available resources rationally and minimizing negative social consequences.

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O.S. Sukharev

TECHNOLOGICAL DUALISM OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND THE STRUCTURAL POLICY OF ITS NEW GROWTH MODEL

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The author explores the concept of "technological dualism”. The purpose of the study is to obtain an interpretation of the effect of technological dualism for the Russian economy. The author succeeded in establishing its special nature, when the retirement of labor from capital-intensive sectors of the economy occurs not due to the introduction of labor-saving technologies, but for other reasons, and there is no significant increase in the manufacturability of capital-intensive types of activities. Technical measures for increasing the level of manufacturability by types of production and types of enterprises are proposed, and basic differences in the technological development of economic sectors are established, which makes it possible to specify the measures of structural and industrial policy. The research methodology includes structural and comparative analysis, taxonomic approach, elements of empirical and regression data analysis.

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S.V. Kozlova, P.S. Zvyagintsev

TRANSFORMATION OF THE STATE PROGRAM "FEDERAL PROPERTY ADMINISTRATION"

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The article presents results of a meaningful analysis of the state program "Federal Property Administration", its transformation and the results of the program implementation. The program is considered as an integral part of the institutional environment of state property administration. The study is based on the methodological basis of the institutional approach, while the modern format of the institutional environment is considered as an aggregate of official laws, government resolutions and other regulations and their interconnection with each other. Conclusions are drawn about the insufficient effectiveness of the previously obtained results are drawn. New challenges and realities require structural adjustment of the economy, increased involvement of state property in solving urgent tasks. As a consequence, there is a need for new methodological approaches to state property administration, to continue the formation and adaptation of institutions associated with strategic planning.

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WORLD ECONOMY

 

E.V. Krasova, R.I. Grivanov

RUSSIA AND REPUBLIC OF KOREA: REGIONAL ASPECT OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION

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Trade and economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Korea (ROK) is a significant topic in the field of Russia's foreign economic relations. Given the low level of investment and unstable trends in bilateral trade, the ROK’s importance as an economic partner for Russian Far Eastern regions, including Primorsky Region, calls for closer attention to the bilateral cooperation problems at the regional level. The purpose of this research based on statistical data analysis is to reveal fundamental problems related to trade and economic cooperation between Russia and the ROK through the study of regional economic relations. The authors describe some trends in cooperation between the ROK and Primorsky Region observed since the 2010s and identify the main challenges it faces, namely politicized international relations and Koreans’ lowered expectations of return on investment due to the relatively low level of Primorsky Region’s economic development.

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V.A. Ryazanov 

JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA AS MARKETS FOR RUSSIAN EXPORTERS OF WOOD PELLETS

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The author studies the growth factors and prospects of Japanese and South Korean wood pellets markets due to their increased attractiveness for Russian suppliers after sanction shutdown of European destinations in 2022. A quantitative analysis of the markets of East Asian countries revealed that the key factor in the growth of demand in Japan is an increase in government subsidies, which is why the volume of consumption is growing in progression. In South Korea, the new increase in demand is caused mostly by surge of prices for traditional imported fuels, including natural gas. Russian supplies to these markets doubled in 2022, but exports also grew earlier despite the lower price attractiveness comparing to the EU market. Analysis of the natural limitations of the world market of fuel pellets allowed to conclude that Russian products are in a great demand, which is confirmed not only by an increase in supplies to East Asia after the European sanctions were imposed, but also by the start of mass export to Turkey, which ships pellets to the European Union.

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A.R. Petrosyan

PROSPECTS OF INTEGRATION PROCESSES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN (on the example of the mining and metallurgy)

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The author analyzes the state and prospects of cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan within the EAEU using the example of the mining and metallurgy. The emphasis is placed on the current problems caused by anti-Russian sanctions. It is shown that unfriendly countries, using various sanctions, are attempting to weaken the traditional centuries-old political, economic and social ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, and to redirect commodity flows (primarily rare earth metals) to themselves. The author emphasizes that in these conditions it is especially important to continue developing cooperation and integration processes within the EAEU.

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SCIENTIFIC LIFE

 

L.V. Zelenoborskaya 

THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES IN 2022

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