The Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 6/2025. World Economy. 

 

Nataliya V. Smorodinskaya

Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0002-4741-9197

 

Daniel D. Katukov

Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0003-3839-5979

 

Vyacheslav E. Malygin

Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

ORCID: 0000-0003-0545-6456

 

TRUMPONOMICS AS THE APOTHEOSIS OF ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL NATIONALISM

Размер файла127-146
Размер файла  377.89 K Размер файла Full text

The paper describes, using the example of the US “America First” policy, a global trend of the 2020s — the revival of economic nationalism (EN). We demonstrate how security imperatives are becoming central to economic strategies, with the weaponization of countries’ economic interdependencies emerging as a distinctive policy instrument. We examine the contemporary model of EN, identifying its key features and instruments, with particular emphasis on technological nationalism as its core component. This analytical framework helps us to reveal the contradictory nature of Trumponomics (the President Trump’s course since 2025), the trap of irreconcilable technological rivalry between the US and China, and the risks of Trump’s ‘bilateral deals” for the global economy. We find that nations’ transition under the EN doctrine from liberal principles of economic openness and free trade to protectionist and self-sufficiency ideologies entails the accumulation of economic inefficiencies. This trend can ultimately undermine countries’ ability to achieve those very goals of sustainable and secure development for which they have made this policy shift.

Keywords: economic nationalism, technological sovereignty, weaponization of interdependencies, securitization, trade war, Trumponomics, US-China rivalry.

JEL: F52, F50, F13

EDN: WGDALA

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_127_146

References

  1. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Moving towards technological sovereignty: A new global trend and the Russian specifics // Baltic Region. 2024. Vol. 16. No. 3. Pp. 108–135. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.5922/2079-8555-2024-3-6.
  2. de Bolle M., Cohen-Setton J., Sarsenbayev M. The new economic nationalism. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2025.
  3. Capri A. Techno-nationalism: How it’s reshaping trade, geopolitics and society. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2024.
  4. Farrell H., Newman A. Underground empire: How America weaponized the world economy. New York, NY: Henry Holt and Co., 2023.
  5. Cha V.D. Collective resilience: Deterring China’s weaponization of economic interdependence // International Security. 2023. Vol. 48. No. 1. Pp. 91–124. DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00465.
  6. Smorodinskaya N.V., Malygin V.E. Economic security and technological sovereignty in modern industrial policy // Microeconomics. 2024. No. 6. Pp. 94–103. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.119.2024.94-103.
  7. Suesse M. The nationalist dilemma: A global history of economic nationalism, 1776–present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
  8. G20 trade policy factbook. 2025 edition. Global Trade Alert, 2025. https://globaltradealert.org/reports/G20-Trade-Policy-Factbook-2025.
  9. Katukov D.D., Smorodinskaya N.V. Russia’s technological sovereignty and leadership: Strategic intentions and domestic constraints // Society and Economy. 2025. No. 12. Pp. 38–59. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31857/S0207367625120032.
  10. Blackwill R.D., Harris J.M. War by other means: Geoeconomics and statecraft. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2017.
  11. Luo Y. Illusions of techno-nationalism // Journal of International Business Studies. 2022. Vol. 53. No. 3. Pp. 550–567. DOI: 10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5.
  12. Aiyar S., Ilyina A., Chen J., Kangur A., Trevino J., Ebeke C., Gudmundsson T., Soderberg G., Schulze T., Kunaratskul T., Ruta M., Garcia-Saltos R., Rodriguez S. Geo-economic fragmentation and the future of multilateralism // IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. SDN/2023/001. 2023. DOI: 10.5089/9798400229046.006.
  13. Reynolds E.B. S. industrial transformation and the “how” of 21st century industrial strategy // Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade. 2024. Vol. 24. No. 1. Article 8. DOI: 10.1007/s10842-024-00420-x.
  14. BaldwinE. The great trade hack: How Trump’s trade war fails and the world moves on. Paris: CEPR Press, 2025.
  15. Grossman G.M., Sykes A.O. Commandeering the customs: An economic and legal perspective on the president’s “emergency” imposition of “reciprocal tariffs”. 2025.
  16. Mariotti S. Firms as political forces for good: Navigating disorder and state interventionism in a multipolar world // Thunderbird International Business Review. 2025. DOI: 10.1002/tie.70014.
  17. Knobel A., Ponomareva O. US trade policy: Current situation and prospects // Monitoring of Russia’s Economic Outlook. 2025. No. 15. (In Russ.). https://ideas.repec.org/a/gai/monreo/monreo-2025-15-1434.html
  18. Khong Y.F., Liow J.C. Southeast Asia is starting to choose: Why the region is leaning toward China // Foreign Affairs. 2025. Vol. 104. No. 4. Pp. 151–161.
  19. Roberts A., Choer Moraes H., Ferguson V. Toward a geoeconomic order in international trade and investment // Journal of International Economic Law. 2019. Vol. 22. No. 4. Pp. 655–676. DOI: 10.1093/jiel/jgz036.
  20. Zenglein M.J., Gunter J. The party knows best: Aligning economic actors with China’s strategic goals. Berlin: MERICS, 2023. https://merics.org/en/report/party-knows-bestaligning-economic-actors-chinas-strategic-goals.
  21. Chan K., Czin J.A., Hass R., Heerman K., Kim P.M., O’Hanlon M.E., Rapp-Hooper M., Sisson M.W., Thornton S.A. What happened when Trump met Xi? // Brookings. 2025. https://brookings.edu/articles/what-happened-when-trump-met-xi (accessed: 06.11.2025).
  22. Goodman M.P. The US must set limits on economic security // The Banker. 2025. https://thebanker.com/content/d691d5d2-1053-4018-a36d-4ab50491165a (accessed: 14.11.2025).
  23. Froman M.B.G. After the trade war: Remaking rules from the ruins of the rules-based system // Foreign Affairs. 2025. Vol. 104. No. 5. Pp. 60–74.
  24. Tobin L. America first vs. China’s brute force economics // Lessons from the new Cold War: America confronts the China challenge / Brands H. (ed.). Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2025. Pp. 17–34.
  25. Siripurapu N., Berman A. What are tariffs? // Council on Foreign Relations. 2025. https://cfr.org/backgrounder/what-are-tariffs (accessed: 02.04.2025).
  26. Froman M. Trade-offs in Trump’s trade policy // CFR. 2025. https://cfr.org/article/tradeoffs-trumps-trade-policy (accessed: 02.08.2025).
  27. Steil B. Who pays Trump’s tariffs? // Council on Foreign Relations. 2025. https://cfr.org/article/who-pays-trumps-tariffs (accessed: 05.11.2025).
  28. Global Trade Update (October 2025): Global trade remains strong despite policy changes and uncertainty. 2025. https://unctad.org/publication/global-tradeupdate-october-2025-global-trade-remains-strong-despite-policy-changes-and
  29. Antràs P., Chor D. Global value chains // Handbook of international economics / Gopinath G., Helpman E., Rogoff K.S. (ed.). Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 5. Pp. 297–376.
  30. Fernández-Villaverde J., Mineyama T., Song D. Are we fragmented yet? Measuring geopolitical fragmentation and its causal effect // NBER Working Papers No. 32638. 2024. DOI: 10.3386/w32638.

Manuscript submission date: 16.10.2025

Manuscript acceptance date: 18.11.2025

 

For citation:

Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D., Malygin V.E. Trumponomics as the apotheosis of economic and technological nationalism// Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk. 2025. № 6. Pp. 127-146. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2025_6_127_146 EDN: WGDALA

  Creative Commons 4.0

© Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk, 2021 - 2025

32, Nakhimovskiy Prospekt, Moscow, Russia 117218, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Phone.: +7 (499) 724-13-91, E-mail: vestnik-ieran@inecon.ru