№ 3/2023  Full text

Date of placement: 07.07.2023

 

ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

 

A.V. Vilenskiy

SELF-EMPLOYMENT IN RUSSIA: SPATIAL ASPECT OF ITS DEVELOPMENT AS AN INSTITUTION

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In his article, the author describes what he found when analyzing the formation and development of the institution of self-employment in the Russian Federation, both taking into account the diversity and specifics of Russian regions and identifying the reasons for this institution’s active introduction into the Russian economy and social sphere in modern conditions, as well as the positive results obtained. The study showed that in all Russian regions there is a significant increase in the number of self-employed, exceeding the planned and forecast values presented in the federal program “Creating favorable conditions for the activities of self-employed citizens” (2018). Statistics by federal subjects of Russia indicate that the spatial development of the institution of self-employment is combined with a significant decrease in the unemployment rate in the vast majority of Russian regions. However, it should be noted that after the introduction of this institution there were also negative effects, including the switch of skilled workers from SMEs and even from large enterprises to self-employment, which aggravated the problem of labor shortage in some regions.

On the whole, it can be stated that in Russia this institution is now adequately fulfilling its functions in the economy and in the social sphere — bringing small business entities out of the shadows and fighting unemployment. In the context of modern challenges and strategic tasks, these two functions are essential for the Russian economy and society.

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I.O. Zharinov

MANAGING CHANGES IN THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX IN THE CONTEXT OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

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The author presents the results of analyzing the evolutionary processes in the economic system of the military-industrial complex in the context of the digital transformation of the manufacturing business. He demonstrates the need to resolve the contradiction associated with the dilemma of either using conservative technologies for managing economic objects of the defense industry adopted in the Industry 3.0, or their reengineering for application to the economic management of promising objects of the Industry 4.0. The complexity of solving this problem is due to the existing institutional and infrastructural constraints characteristic for the military-industrial complex that allow the formation of multiple "intermediate" forms of management differing in degrees of economic efficiency and financial stability.

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M.O. Turaeva

PERFORMANCE OF RUSSIAN FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN 2022: SOME OUTCOMES

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The author analyzes some of the outcomes of Russian freight transport performance in 2022, as well as the ways to transform the entire transport industry of Russia under the increased sanctions pressure. She considers topical issues of modernizing the transport and logistics infrastructure in the East of Russia, highlights the problems causing the need to accelerate the development of the Eastern zone of Russian Railways and analyzes the dynamics of cargo shipment by Russian sea transport in foreign navigation and the use of the so-called shadow fleet, which contributed to the growth of Russian energy exports in 2022. Finally, the author assesses the prospects of increasing pipeline deliveries to the Asian markets and enhancing the capacity of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

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FINANCE

 

T.N. Polyakova

RUSSIAN MARKET OF EXCHANGE-TRADED BONDS: ANALYSIS OF CIRCULATION

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The author analyzes the circulation of corporate bonds without special issue terms that are registered through the Moscow Exchange, and makes an assessment of whether the parameters of bond issues meet the current requirements of investors. It is noted that the reliability and liquidity of bonds, supporting the stability of the market, become particularly important when investors choose securities. Priority investment areas, which determine significant movements in the bond market, are being shaped.

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R.S. Kuznetsov, T.G. Tumarova

PAO GAZPROM STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING LSTM NEURAL NETWORKS

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Artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly being used in many areas of economy and finance. Developments in technology and the increasing accessibility of computing facilities allow for the wider use of various programming tools. For many companies operating in the field of stock trading and other derivatives, availability of an effective forecasting mechanism is an important competitive advantage, and increasing this advantage is now possible by using neural network models such as LSTM. The authors present the results of testing the LSTM model on the basis of actual data (quotations of Gazprom shares at Moscow Exchange): quotation values were predicted and the trend of Gazprom stocks at Moscow Exchange, starting from September 2019, was revealed.

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PUBLICATIONS OF YOUNG AUTHORS

 

S.G. Zhestyannikov

FEATURES AND DRIVERS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF MUNICIPALITIES LOCATED NEAR LARGE CITY

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The specifics of socio-economic development of municipalities located near major cities and in suburban areas of urban agglomerations have not yet been adequately reflected in the scientific literature. Meanwhile, when introducing scientifically substantiated proposals into the practice of managing such territories, it seems extremely important to identify the features and clarify the drivers of socio-economic development in municipalities adjacent to a large city. In an attempt to fill in this information gap, the study not only revealed a number of specific features of municipalities of this kind, but also provided practical recommendations on how to approach managing their development.

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V.A. Lemutov

TECHNOLOGY AS A DRIVER OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: RISKS AND PROSPECTS OF THE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE POLICY IN THE PRC

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The author analyzes the new infrastructure development policy in the PRC, which implies the implementation of high-tech infrastructure projects aimed at digitalization and development of science. Similar to previous government infrastructure programs, it is intended to be a tool to stimulate economic growth. The prevalence of business investment over state funding, as well as the lower required amount of investment (less than RMB 20 trillion over 5 years) compared to traditional infrastructure, may reduce debt risks. However, relatively low utilization of new infrastructure facilities and the lack of a proven link between ICT investment and economic growth in less developed regions indicate that new infrastructure is unlikely to make the economic development of PRC regions more even.

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E.S. Romanchuk

TRENDS AND RISKS OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UZBEKISTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

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Based on the analysis of Russia's foreign economic relations with Uzbekistan, the study reveals an asymmetry in economic cooperation between the two states, manifested in the great dependence of the Central Asian republic on Russia, especially in overcoming poverty problems and reducing pressure on the domestic labor market. With this in mind, the author assessed the impact of increasing geopolitical tensions on the dynamics of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan, as well as the possible consequences of sanctions pressure on the former for the economy of the latter.

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SCIENTIFIC LIFE

 

I.V. Karavaeva, M.Yu. Lev

NEW CHALLENGES TO RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC SECURITY (BASED ON PROCEEDINGS OF THE ALL-RUSSIAN SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CONFERENCE “VII SENCHAGOV READINGS. RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC SECURITY: RESPONSE TO NEW CHALLENGES“)

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The authors review the materials of the All-Russian scientific and practical conference «VII Senchagov Readings» hosted by the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow on March 23–24, 2023, having provided links to the previously published works of the speakers related to the topics of their plenary reports. Based on these reports addressing the most topical controversial issues of Russia’s economic security under the increasing sanctions pressure, the authors describe the main areas the conference participants focused on, namely the federal, regional and municipal aspects of the said issues. They present their own theoretical assessments of new threats and challenges to the economic security of Russia caused by the crisis of 2019–2023 and outline the changes in global socio-economic trends, including the crucial areas for the development of the social component of economic security in the spheres of industrial policy, social security, transformation of the labor market, as well as creation of a new logistics network for modern Russia.

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