№ 4/2023  Full text

Date of placement: 12.09.2023

 

ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

 

E.B. Lenchuk, V.I. Filatov

STRATEGIC PLANNING AS A TOOL FOR REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

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The article substantiates the objective necessity of using strategic planning tools to fend off challenges and threats in the increasing uncertainty created by the current geopolitical and geo-economic situation and the transition to a new competitive development model. The authors focus on the essence of strategic planning, the mechanisms for its implementation in a market economy, as well as on determining the main methodological approaches to systematizing this process. Having analyzed the main methodological, substantive and organizational shortcomings and bottlenecks preventing a full-fledged system of strategic planning from being formed and incorporated into the system of public administration in Russia, the authors identify priority areas for improving the former system.

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I.N. Domnina

“INCLUSION” OF PREFERENTIAL ZONES IN THE SYSTEM OF SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY: PROBLEMS AND LIMITATIONS

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The article deals with the unresolved problems of forming a balanced system of strategic planning, which make the institute of preferential zones “fall out” from the process of spatial strategizing of the economy. The author analyzes the content and boundaries of the presence of preferential zones in the federal strategy for spatial development, as well as in the strategies of meso- and sub-federal planning levels, and determines approaches to forming the institutional and legal framework for the inclusion of preferential zones in the infrastructure of economic space management.

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S.V. Kozlova, O.M. Gribanova

INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT OF STATE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT IN CURRENT REALITIES

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The article presents the results of a study of the current institutional environment for managing state property, considered as an aggregate of basic institutions for managing state property, resulted in the formation and transformation process over the past three decades in Russia in the course of Russian market reforms. The analysis was carried out on the basis of such categories as the institutional environment, the institutional mechanism, which gives us a more relevant picture of the ongoing processes in the field of state property management and the opportunity to determine areas for its further improvement.

It is concluded that, even in the context of the extraordinary geopolitical challenges of the 21st century and anti-Russian sanctions, the use of the currently existing fundamental institutions of state property management as a basis for the formation of new mechanisms of state property administration and improvement of the existing ones is quite enough to solve current and long-term socio-economic tasks facing Russia, as well as to achieve our strategic state goals in a changing global environment.

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FINANCE

 

O.S. Vinogradova, F.S. Kartaev

IDENTIFICATION OF PROCYCLICALITY BY SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

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The article presents an approach to identifying the procyclicality in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The proposed method has been tested on the economic data for Russia (1996-2020). Regulation that takes into account the cyclical nature of the economy makes it possible to reduce the resonant effect of dynamic changes in the key determinants of the base cycle, as it implies identification of the moment when the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators change, which is a signal for a change in the monetary policy. The results obtained can be used to fine-tune the measures of the stabilization monetary policy while implementing the inflation targeting regime.

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O.A. Lvova

BUSINESS EVALUATION WITHIN CRISIS MANAGEMENT: APPROACHES FOR OWNERS, CREDITORS, INSOLVENCY PRACTITIONERS AND INVESTORS

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The article suggests approaches to business evaluation by various stakeholders for crisis management purposes. For owners and managers, an identification system of business sustainability decline has been developed, including market, operational, investment, financial, managerial and organizational indicators. For creditors, a strategic map is proposed, containing market, process, resource and financial triggers identified during express diagnostics and advanced trigger analysis. For insolvency practitioners, the methodology of financial analysis has been modified, supplemented by an algorithm for debtor’s transactions analysis and identifying signs of “objective bankruptcy”. For potential investors, a scenario assessment model has been developed, which makes it possible to determine the benefits, opportunity costs, the feasibility of merger or acquisition of a distressed company, the cost of its restoration and integration, and the synergetic effect of such M&A.

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WORLD ECONOMY

 

I.A. Korgun

REPUBLIC OF KOREA’S INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY: PRIORITIES AND REPERCUSSIONS FOR REGIONAL STABILITY IN EAST ASIA

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This study aims to analyze the priorities of the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and specifically attempts to assess the potential impact of the strategy on the balance of power in the region from the perspective of classical realism. It also evaluates the extent to which the current level of economic cooperation with Southeast Asia (SEA) and India corresponds to its central position in the strategy.

The study concludes that in the medium and long term, the IPS may have a destabilizing impact on the regional situation and negatively affect the image of the ROK as a neutral player, as it has been perceived so far. According to classical realism, strengthening alliances at the expense of the interests of other players will lead to increased conflicts, as has happened repeatedly throughout history. Despite the Korean government emphasizing the significance of the SEA and India region for the economy, the ROK’s dependency on China has not diminished. Currently, there is a noticeable increase in the country’s economic interaction with the United States, further pulling Seoul into the orbit of American partners and making it a tool for achieving foreign policy and strategic goals for certain circles of the US administration.

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V.P. Klavdienko

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN CHINA: TRENDS, INNOVATIONS, PROSPECTS

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The article examines the main trends and specifics of renewable energy development in China in the context of the current transformation of the global energy economy. The author identifies the factors promoting rapid growth of key sectors of green energy, describes the priority areas of R&D and innovative technological transformations in this field in China, and provides data on the volume and structure of their financing. A comparative analysis of the capacity factor and LCOE of various generation technologies in China and a number of other countries was carried out, and the prospects and problems of further development of China’s renewable energy on the way to carbon neutrality were considered.

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A.D. Vasilchenko, D.V. Logvinov, A.A. Semenova

NON-PRICE DEMAND FACTORS FOR WHEAT IMPORTS IN NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES

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North Africa has firmly established itself as a leading world region in terms of wheat imports. While domestic production remains limited due to natural and climate factors, domestic demand for wheat keeps growing due to fast population growth. That makes the region an attractive grain market, and forces largest exporters to use the whole range of price and nonprice instruments in the competition for the desired market niche. Russian wheat is the most competitive in terms of price. However, as this study shows, in the target region, it is nonprice factors that have a key influence on the decision to conclude a foreign trade contract. In this regard, the purpose of this paper is to reveal, using a panel data model, significant nonprice factors that affect the distribution of market shares of the main suppliers of wheat to the North African market. Taking these factors into consideration will allow underrepresented exporters to increase supplies and secure a niche that fully meets their export potential.

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A.S. Chetverikova

TRANSFORMATION OF INVESTMENT TIES OF BALTIC STATES AND POLAND

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The article presents an analysis of investment ties’ development of Poland and Baltic states. The author assesses general dynamics of foreign direct investment and identifies main stages and factors influencing FDI. The conclusion is substantiated that these countries continue to play the role of capital importers and there are no fundamental reasons for this situation to change. The author analyzes main disproportions of investment ties, including sectoral and territorial aspects, and identifies the common features and key differences of investment sectors of Poland and Baltic republics. Based on the calculation of Herfindahl-Hirschman index the change in the level of diversification of the sectoral structure of inward and outward FDI in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since 2010 has been assessed.

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PUBLICATIONS OF YOUNG AUTHORS

 

D.A. Sudarev

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL FACTORS ON FEDERAL BUDGET REVENUE FORECAST ACCURACY IN RUSSIA

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The purpose of the study is assessment of impact of political factors, such as electoral cycles and ideological range of parliament on systematic deviations of actual revenues of the Russian federal budget from its planned values. The study consists of two stages. On the first stage the quality of federal budget revenue forecast on the period from 2000 to 2022 is made (actual value of revenue is compared with planned one in the first version of the budget law). It is shown that official federal revenue forecasts are characterized with statistically significant under-prediction. The second stage is the empirical assessment of potential factors impact on pessimism in revenue forecasting. The following results of the conducted evaluation are proposed: federal electoral cycles are not statistically significant and ideological structure of the parliament is weakly significant factors of revenue forecasts quality. The result of the study gives the motivation for further investigation of key actors’ incentives during budget forecasting.

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